Friday, May 3, 2013

Wild scenarios and NCAA chances for all

 
There are still numerous chances for as many as six teams to win the Mountain West title.  While remembering that there are many different scenarios, let's look at just a few of the most intriguing possibilities:

5-way tie for the title at 11-7

This occurs if...
  • Colorado State takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State this week; and
  • Fresno State sweeps New Mexico this week; and
  • UNLV sweeps Boise State this week; and
  • Colorado State takes 2 of 3 from New Mexico next week; and
  • UNLV takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State next week; and
  • Nevada sweeps Boise State next week.

Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, San Diego State and UNLV would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, Colorado State would claim the automatic NCAA berth based on its 8-4 record against the teams it tied for the conference title.

4-way tie for the title at 11-7

This occurs if...
  • Colorado State takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State this week; and
  • Fresno State sweeps New Mexico this week; and
  • Boise State sweeps UNLV this week; and
  • Colorado State takes 2 of 3 from New Mexico next week; and
  • UNLV takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State next week; and
  • Boise State sweeps Nevada next week.

Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, Colorado State would claim the automatic NCAA berth.  Fresno State and Colorado State would both be 5-4 against the teams they tied for the conference title, but the Rams would win the automatic bid based on a 2-1 series win over the Bulldogs.

4-way tie for the title at 11-7 (scenario 2)

This occurs if...

  • Colorado State takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State this week; and
  • Fresno State sweeps New Mexico this week; and
  • UNLV does not sweep Boise State this week; and
  • Colorado State takes 2 of 3 from New Mexico next week; and
  • UNLV takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State next week; and
  • Nevada sweeps Boise State next week.

Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada and San Diego State would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, Colorado State would claim the automatic NCAA berth by virtue of having the best record against those it tied for the conference title.

4-way tie for the title at 11-7 (scenario 3)

This occurs if...
  • San Diego State takes 2 of 3 from Colorado State this week; and
  • Fresno State sweeps New Mexico this week; and
  • UNLV sweeps Boise State this week; and
  • Colorado State sweeps New Mexico next week; and
  • UNLV takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State next week; and
  • Nevada does not sweep Boise State next week.

Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and UNLV would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, Colorado State would claim the automatic NCAA berth based on its 6-3 record against the teams it tied for the conference title.

4-way tie for the title at 11-7 (scenario 4)


This occurs if...
  • San Diego State takes 2 of 3 from Colorado State this week; and
  • Fresno State does not sweep New Mexico this week; and
  • UNLV sweeps Boise State this week; and
  • Colorado State sweeps New Mexico next week; and
  • UNLV takes 2 of 3 from San Diego State next week; and
  • Nevada sweeps Boise State next week.

Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State and UNLV would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, San Diego State would claim the automatic NCAA berth.  The Aztecs and Rams would both be 5-4 against the teams they tied for the conference title, but SDSU would earn the NCAA bid based on a 2-1 series win over Colorado State.


3-way tie for the title at 11-7 (scenario 1)

This occurs if...
  • San Diego State sweeps Colorado State this week; and
  • Fresno State sweeps New Mexico this week; and
  • Boise State sweeps UNLV this week; and
  • UNLV sweeps San Diego State next week; and
  • Boise State sweeps Nevada next week.

Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, Fresno State would claim the automatic NCAA berth based on its 4-2 record against the teams it tied for the conference title.

3-way tie for the title at 11-7 (scenario 2)

This occurs if...
  • Colorado State sweeps San Diego State this week; and
  • Fresno State sweeps New Mexico this week; and
  • Boise State sweeps UNLV this week; and
  • New Mexico takes 2 of 3 from Colorado State next week; and
  • San Diego State does not sweep UNLV next week; and
  • Boise State sweeps Nevada next week.

Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State would all then tie for the Mountain West title at 11-7.  Under this scenario, Fresno State would claim the automatic NCAA berth based on its 4-2 record against the teams it tied for the conference title.

These are just a few of the scenarios and there are many more, including ones where Nevada and Boise State lay claim to the NCAA automatic berth.  All Mountain West teams need to understand this though:  No team has an easier route than San Diego State.  The Aztecs win the MW regular-season title and automatic NCAA bid if they win their final two series of the season.  In that scenario, SDSU would finish no worse than 12-6 in the conference and guaranteed of a championship.

But if Colorado State wins its series against San Diego State this week, it opens up an entirely different can of worms where almost anything is possible.  Stay tuned for an exciting final two weeks.